Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.253570 3.028462 4.105760 5.760664 8.329376 12.330902 1.940270e+01
2025-04-20 1.455576 2.232619 3.521750 5.973556 10.944639 21.746593 5.154590e+01
2025-04-27 1.050195 1.796834 3.238613 6.581534 15.484538 43.940153 1.909382e+02
2025-05-04 0.772700 1.445834 2.924287 7.028897 21.392598 93.186869 1.064840e+03
2025-05-11 0.570365 1.145957 2.550884 7.114642 27.858108 199.776099 1.289422e+04
2025-05-18 0.417020 0.883095 2.115352 6.652060 32.530207 395.021585 1.389019e+06
2025-05-25 0.304515 0.669362 1.691344 5.825446 34.158513 691.919707 NaN
2025-06-01 0.250278 0.578466 1.573552 6.178719 48.127292 2691.488557 NaN
2025-06-08 0.206753 0.498401 1.444706 6.385184 65.987872 15784.590996 NaN
2025-06-15 0.177582 0.447017 1.385697 6.979952 102.097680 706624.018448 NaN
2025-06-22 0.152979 0.399644 1.314088 7.464934 156.256634 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.128781 0.344823 1.180013 7.293930 201.722127 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.106019 0.288273 1.011700 6.605097 221.831540 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.093106 0.260310 0.956883 6.926563 347.481815 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.084142 0.242827 0.941936 7.723642 677.576611 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.075634 0.224112 0.909893 8.328692 1307.645440 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.067195 0.202961 0.852224 8.483774 2237.972654 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.058585 0.178705 0.763573 7.946599 2853.261579 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.050381 0.154018 0.660677 6.945426 2684.666035 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.046313 0.144425 0.642001 7.408577 6139.105522 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.042415 0.134433 0.615426 7.687242 14146.954302 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.039649 0.128272 0.609773 8.456246 63012.054364 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.036950 0.121640 0.597296 9.089247 443708.989437 NaN NaN